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    Dow Jones Newswires 25 August 2015

    25 August 2015 Gold holds below 7-week high as dollar, equities recover [MANILA] Gold hovered below a seven-week high on Tuesday as equity markets and the US dollar rebounded from a brutal selloff in the prior session that was fuelled by fears over the fate of the Chinese economy.
    After Monday's rout, most Asian stocks recovered in tandem with US futures and Chinese shares pared losses. The dollar rose 0.6 per cent versus a basket of currencies after falling the most since 2011. "If that remains the case over the course of this session then buying interest in gold could dry up," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.
    Spot gold was flat at US$1,154.60 an ounce by 0240 GMT. It closed a tad lower on Monday after a five-day rally that lifted it to US$1,168.40 on Friday, its loftiest since July 7.
    US gold for December delivery was also flat at US$1,154 an ounce.
    Gold was among the least bruised by Monday's selloff, dropping half a percent versus a 6 per cent slide in Brent crude and a 2 per cent decline in copper.
    A near-9 per cent dive in China shares sent global stocks and commodity prices tumbling overnight. That helped gold hold up as uncertainty over the global economy boosted investor appetite for safe-haven assets. "Gold should continue to hold its value during the current market turbulence, however a material surge higher is unlikely as participants find liquidity by selling all asset classes, including precious metals," MKS Group trader James Gardiner said in a note.
    Also potentially limiting gold's upside potential, a key Federal Reserve official stuck to his view that a US interest rate hike would happen this year.
    Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the Fed will likely begin raising rates "sometime this year," even as the steep drop in oil prices clouds the inflation outlook. Two weeks ago, Mr Lockhart said he was "very disposed" to a rate hike in September.
    CMC Markets' McCarthy believes a US rate hike can still happen next month. "The Fed is focused on the underlying economy, not the share market. They want to normalise rates so that they have room to move should another crisis emerge," he said.
    Spot palladium fell to as much as US$555.50 an ounce, its lowest since July 2012, before paring losses to trade at US$564.25, down 1.1 per cent.
    Platinum gained 0.5 per cent to US$993 an ounce and silver rose 0.8 per cent to US$14.90. REUTERS

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    25 August 2015 Oil trades below US$39

    25 August 2015 Oil trades below US$39 after global rout as US glut seen rising [NEW YORK] Oil held losses near a six-year low after a global equities and commodities selloff as US government data was forecast to show stockpiles expanded for a second week.
    Futures were little changed in New York after tumbling 5.5 per cent on Monday. Inventories probably expanded by 2 million barrels through Aug 21, according to a Bloomberg survey before a report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. A measure of oil-price fluctuations rose to the highest level in more than four months on Monday amid a collapse in commodities.
    Oil has slumped more than 35 per cent since the year's closing peak in June on signs the global glut will persist as leading Opec members sustain output and US supplies remain almost 100 million barrels above the five-year average. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials sank Monday to the lowest level since 1999 on concern of slowing Chinese demand.
    "That structural glut in the oil market is going to remain," Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney, said in a Bloomberg television interview. "As a result of that I think you might see it head even lower, and probably head down to those December 2008 lows." West Texas Intermediate for October delivery was at US$38.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 3 cents, at 10:41 am Sydney time. The contract dropped US$2.21 to US$38.24 on Monday, the lowest close since February 2009. The volume of all futures traded was about 14 per cent below the 100-day average. Prices hit an intraday low of US$32.40 a barrel in December 2008.
    Brent for October settlement was 1 cent higher at US$42.70 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It fell US$2.77, or 6.1 per cent, to US$42.69 on Monday, the lowest since March 2009. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of US$4.48 to WTI. BLOOMBERG

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    25 August 2015 Global economy

    25 August 2015 Global economy not at risk of recession despite China weakness: Goldman [SINGAPORE] The global economy is not at a risk of a recession in spite of recent concerns over China's economy and weakness in commodity prices, Goldman Sachs said, although it lowered its short-term outlook for global stock markets. "The drop in commodity prices during the past year and recent economic and foreign exchange weakness in China and other emerging markets will not tip the global economy into recession," analysts at the US investment bank said in an Aug 24 dated note to clients, which was seen by Reuters.
    The Wall Street bank reduced its short-term outlook for the equity market to "neutral", but remained "overweight" over six and 12 months. It also maintained its view that commodities will underperform. "We see a meaningful risk that markets are over-interpreting the collapse of oil and commodity prices as a negative growth signal," the analysts said. The fall in prices of oil and other commodities are primarily a reflection of excess supply rather than weak demand, they said.
    Goldman Sachs raised its short-term outlook for US equities to neutral and lowered European equities to neutral. REUTERS

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    25 August 2015 Yuan

    25 August 2015 Yuan opens firmer after higher official fix, rebounds from lows [SHANGHAI] China's yuan firmed at the open on Tuesday, after closing at its weakest level since 2011 on the previous day.
    The People's Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.3987 per dollar prior to market open, firmer than the previous day's close at 6.4044.
    The spot market opened at 6.4149 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.4100 in early trade, 56 pips away from the previous close and 0.18 per cent away from the midpoint. The spot rate is currently allowed to trade with a range 2 per cent above or below the official fixing on any given day.
    The offshore yuan was trading 1.06 per cent away from the onshore spot at 6.479 per dollar. REUTERS

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    25 August 2015 PBOC injects US$23.4b as yuan intervention drains funds

    25 August 2015 PBOC injects US$23.4b as yuan intervention drains funds [SHANGHAI] China's central bank added the most funds to the financial system in open-market operations since Jan 2014 as currency-market intervention to prop up the yuan strained the supply of cash.
    The People's Bank of China auctioned 150 billion yuan (US$23.4 billion) of seven-day reverse-repurchase agreements, according to traders at primary dealers required to bid at the auctions. That compares with 120 billion yuan maturing Tuesday, which leaves a net injection of 30 billion yuan.
    The overnight repurchase rate climbed to a four-month high of 1.85 per cent Monday, and was at 1.83 percent as of 9.19 am in Shanghai Tuesday, according to a weighted average compiled by the National Interbank Funding Center.
    Major banks have been seen selling dollars toward the close of onshore trading in Shanghai on most days since a surprise yuan devaluation on Aug 11. The intervention removes funds from the financial system and risks driving borrowing costs higher unless the monetary authority releases additional cash. China's foreign-exchange reserves will drop by some US$40 billion a month for the rest of this year, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
    The monetary authority injected a net 150 billion yuan last week using reverse-repurchase agreements. It also added 110 billion yuan via its Medium-term Lending Facility. BLOOMBERG

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    25 August 2015 SIA, Osim

    25 August 2015 SIA, Osim buy back shares during stockmarket meltdown on Monday COMPANIES such as Singapore Airlines (SIA) and OSIM International were among those which bought back some of their own shares as Chinese rout sent stock markets, including Singapore's, tumbling on Monday.
    National carrier SIA bought back 630,800 of its own shares in the open market at S$9.68 to S$9.92 each on Monday, coughing up a total of S$6.18 million. On Tuesday, SIA was trading at S$9.97 a share, up 28 cents, or 2.9 per cent at 10.22am.
    Ron Sim, founder and chief executive of OSIM, a lifestyle company known for its luxurious massage chairs, spent some S$1.41 million buying back 974,500 OSIM shares. The purchase has boosted Mr Sim's interest in OSIM to 65.84 per cent, from 65.71 per cent. At 10.22am, OSIM was trading around S$1.505 a share, up 5.5 cents, or 3.8 per cent.
    Offshore marine services provider Pacific Radiance also entered the market, purchasing 926,000 of its own shares at S$0.295 and S$0.305 each. At 10.22am on Tuesday, Pacific Radiance was trading at S$0.30, down half a cent, or 1.64 per cent.
    At 10.22am on Tuesday, the blue-chip Straits Times Index was trading higher at 2,922.56, up 2.8 per cent, or 79.17 points, after closing more than 4 per cent lower on Monday.
    According to Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG, buying interest seems to be filtering through across the globe.
    "However, the momentum remains firmly on the downside, and a very aggressive one. It's preferable to stay with the trend, and trade accordingly until there is a clear technical signal," Mr Aw warned.

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    25 August 2015 Billionaire 'very worried'

    25 August 2015 Billionaire 'very worried' about China's fallout on global shipping markets [OSLO] John Fredriksen, the billionaire who made his fortune investing in crude tankers, said he's "very worried" about the turmoil spreading from China and the potential fallout on global shipping markets.
    "It seems there are big problems in China," Fredriksen said in an interview in Oslo on Monday. "That's at least not good for the shipping market." More than US$5 trillion has been erased from the value of stocks worldwide since China's surprise devaluation of the yuan Aug 11, which deepened concerns over the state of the world's second-biggest economy. A global selloff in riskier assets intensified Monday as commodity prices sank to a 16-year low and emerging market currencies weakened.
    Fredriksen, 71, has a net worth of US$10.2 billion and owns assets from oil-drilling platforms to fish farms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
    Oil touched the lowest levels since 2009 on Monday. Brent crude traded at US$42.95 a barrel as of 4.05 p.m. Oslo time.
    "For our situation it's good for our tankers," he said. "But for our oil rigs it's negative." The drilling rig market is facing lower demand from oil producers after crude prices collapsed last year. The decline in demand comes as new rigs enter the market, boosting oversupply after a decade of rising offshore investments.
    "There will be a mega consolidation in the rig market," Mr Fredriksen said. "It must happen, will happen. Within the next year there will be consolidation." Fredriksen-controlled Frontline Ltd fell as much as 15 per cent in Monday in Oslo trading while Seadrill Ltd declined as much as 14 per cent.
    "Rig is very difficult because of the oil price and overcapacity," he said. "It doesn't look good right now." BLOOMBERG

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    25 August 2015 Why Has Super Group Ltd Dropped By 43.7% in One Year?

    25 August 2015 Why Has Super Group Ltd Dropped By 43.7% in One Year? By Hui Leong Chin
    There can be good reasons as well as poor reasons for why a stock’s price moves.

    For the Foolish investor, understanding the right reason is important. If we can determine the reason, we may get an inkling on whether the movement in the stock price is deserved or undeserved and thus act accordingly.


    A simple framework


    To help with this, I would like to defer to a couple of paragraphs from The Little Book that Builds Wealth by author and fund manager Pat Dorsey:


    “Over long stretches of time, there are just two things that push a stock up or down: The investment return, driven by earnings growth and dividends, and the speculative return, driven by changes in the price-earnings (P/E) ratio.


    Think of the investment return as reflecting a company’s financial performance, and the speculative return as reflecting the exuberance or pessimism of other investors.”


    Under Dorsey’s framework, stock price returns can be from the deserved-end of the spectrum (investment return), the undeserved-end of the spectrum (speculative return), or anywhere in between.


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    Keeping a journal

    Keeping a journal

    We can track the reasons for a stock’s movement by noting down simple but important financial metrics like its earnings per share (EPS) and PE ratio; they could also be a simple way for you to track the progress of a company over time and can form a crucial part of your investment journal.


    Let’s use food and beverage purveyor Super Group Ltd (SGX: S10) as an example in here. Below, I have summarized the company’s EPS, PE ratio, and the change for each element compared to a year ago:



    Source: Google Finance; earnings report


    As you can see, the 43.7% decrease in Super Group’s stock price had mostly been caused by a stock market which has grown increasingly pessimistic about the F&B outfit’s business. This is shown by Super Group carrying a PE ratio now which is lower by 30.5% from a year ago.


    Part of the reason for the market’s pessimism could be due to the lower revenue and earnings that the company has recorded recently. A weak outlook for regional consumer spending and a 20% fall for the general stock market in Singapore, are other possible reasons to explain why Super Group’s share price is currently beaten down.


    There are some positives to the story here. The F&B outfit has a strong balance sheet (it has a net cash position) and reported positive free cash flow in its latest earnings release. It may take more than these to weather the short-term storms ahead, but they form a solid financial base that Super Group can build on.


    Foolish takeaway


    With that in mind, the Foolish investor may be in a better position to judge whether the current pessimism (in the form of a lower PE ratio) for Super Group’s future is justified.


    If a stock price rises (or falls), we should try to understand if it is backed by a company’s fundamental growth (decline), or whether it is simply a result of investor exuberance (pessimism).


    When we understand the difference, we may become a better judge on whether our stock price gains are justified – with commensurate growth in earnings – or just a gift from the stock market. While luck is always welcome, Foolish investors could be better off with the former over the long-term.

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    25 August 2015 Lum Chang

    25 August 2015 Lum Chang and New Toyo's Malaysian unit signs MoU to explore PJ development SINGAPORE (Aug 25): Lum Chang Holdings has signed an MoU with Tien Wah Press Holdings Berhad to study co-developing a mixed-use commercial property at No. 9 and 11 Jalan Semangat, 46200 Petaling Jaya, Selangor.
    Lum Chang believes the development could represent a “prime investment opportunity to expand the group's property and development portfolio in Malaysia”.
    New Toyo International Holdings, which is listed on the Singapore Exchange, is the ultimate holding company of Tien Wah Press.
    Under the terms of the MoU, the two parties have agreed to explore a joint venture to develop the land which is currently zoned for industrial use.
    Lum Chang says they will apply to the relevant authorities in Malaysia for change of use of the land to commercial, which will then be developed into a mixed-use commercial development.
    “The JV Parties may if deemed appropriate apply to extend the lease of the land to not less than 99 years,” says Lum Chang in its filing.
    Lum Chang closed 8.2% lower at 33.5 cents on Monday while New Toyo International closed 2.2% lower at 22.5 cents.

 

 

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