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  1. #1
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    Singapore Strategy: Sliding down with currency 18/08/15

    Singapore Strategy: Sliding down with currency

    Corporate earnings could slip into negative territory

    • Lower STI target to 2900, -1.5SD
    • Top slice healthcare and telecoms sectors, Petra, SMRT, Silverlake
    • Tactical buys – SCI, STE, Interplex, SIA

  2. #2
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    STI broke 3100 on Rmb devaluatio

    STI broke 3100 on Rmb devaluation.
    We had adopted a cautious stance and pegged 3150 as the lower band for the STI in our previous strategy - ‘Navigating through Uncertainties’ dated 13 July. This level has since broken down, triggered by the Rmb devaluation and given: (1) continued earnings downgrades in the 2Q results season, (2) more evidence of a regional economic slowdown, and (3) fund outflows as a result of regional currency weaknes

  3. #3
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    Corporate earnings could decline this year.

    Corporate earnings could decline this year.
    Post 2Q, we trimmed our FY15F and FY16F earnings by 3.6% and 3.2% respectively. Earnings growth for the FSSTI companies was cut to a flattish 1% for 2015, with possibility of further downside. As in the past two quarters, the key drag on this quarter’s earnings was from the Oil & Gas, Consumer Services and Commodities sectors.

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    More downside to regional currencies

    More downside to regional currencies
    .
    At 3114, STI currently trades at 12.22x (-1SD) 12-mth forward PE. The weakness in regional currencies against the USD looks likely to continue, the SGD could also feel the pressure heading to the MAS policy meeting in October 2015. This could fuel further fund outflows and create more volatility for Singapore stocks. Thus, we continue to advocate a cautious stance. We now see further downside risk to 2900 that coincides with 11.46x (-1.5SD) 12-mth fwd PE. This PE level turned out to be the inflexion point for the Singapore equity market during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2011.

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    Few places to hide

    Few places to hide.
    Sectors which had performed well could bear the brunt of profit taking, as investors capitalise on their outperformance to raise cash levels. We would top slice stocks in healthcare and telecoms sectors, which had provided good shelter. Healthcare stocks are expensive, trading at lofty PE levels of 41x (15F) and 35x (16F) vs EPS growth of 18% with little dividend yield support of only 0.5-1.3%. We recently downgraded the telecoms sector, expecting declining ARPU going forward as data usage flattens, while competition could intensify, ahead of the 4th player entering the market. SELL Petra, as the company is facing weak consumer demand in Indonesia while its margins are suffering from the declining rupiah. SMRT (Fully Valued, TP $1.27) could see further earnings downside due to the recent rail disruption incident.


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    Tactical BUYs.

    Tactical BUYs.
    Our BUYs are tactical, preferring to pick bombed-out stocks (SembCorp Industries), companies benefitting from a strong US$ (ST Engineering, Interplex) and low oil prices (SIA) or those supported by high dividend yields (China Merchant).


  7. #7
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    sti

    sti

  8. #8
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    MArket Outlook


  9. #9
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  10. #10
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